Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.038386 0.043824 0.049799 0.056856 0.064972 0.074026 0.084905
2024-12-29 0.030610 0.038097 0.047093 0.058731 0.073433 0.091450 0.115299
2025-01-05 0.024872 0.032791 0.042894 0.056792 0.075505 0.099965 0.134582
2025-01-12 0.021230 0.029324 0.040167 0.055846 0.078093 0.108761 0.154642
2025-01-19 0.018082 0.025981 0.037009 0.053652 0.078351 0.113995 0.169947
2025-01-26 0.016800 0.025033 0.036972 0.055717 0.084723 0.128409 0.200157
2025-02-02 0.015719 0.024208 0.036954 0.057705 0.091067 0.143337 0.232846
2025-02-09 0.014784 0.023472 0.036943 0.059621 0.097406 0.158825 0.268211
2025-02-16 0.013492 0.022017 0.035625 0.059243 0.099891 0.168224 0.294378
2025-02-23 0.012515 0.020961 0.034818 0.059576 0.103527 0.179826 0.325639
2025-03-02 0.011456 0.019654 0.033451 0.058774 0.105041 0.187811 0.351192
2025-03-09 0.010897 0.019145 0.033380 0.060214 0.110669 0.203677 0.393317
2025-03-16 0.010046 0.018060 0.032231 0.059644 0.112648 0.213249 0.424977
2025-03-23 0.009649 0.017757 0.032458 0.061663 0.119776 0.233454 0.480700
2025-03-30 0.008747 0.016430 0.030668 0.059620 0.118701 0.237386 0.503128
2025-04-06 0.008075 0.015475 0.029483 0.058624 0.119586 0.245297 0.534965
2025-04-13 0.007318 0.014285 0.027736 0.056316 0.117494 0.246757 0.552684
2025-04-20 0.007129 0.014201 0.028151 0.058489 0.125098 0.269671 0.622128
2025-04-27 0.006940 0.014097 0.028513 0.060581 0.132742 0.293526 0.697031
2025-05-04 0.006752 0.013978 0.028830 0.062598 0.140431 0.318344 0.777690
2025-05-11 0.006355 0.013381 0.028089 0.062200 0.142549 0.330527 0.828564
2025-05-18 0.006054 0.012966 0.027699 0.062551 0.146449 0.347351 0.893631
2025-05-25 0.005679 0.012354 0.026829 0.061706 0.147390 0.357097 0.941409